The World in 2050 Paperback – 18 May 2023

This book is an excellent navigational aid and a strategic roadmap to guide us to 2050. The author has immense knowledge and experience in the subject. His earlier book ‘The World in 2020’ published in the 1990’s acts as a solid base for the methodology and course correction based on events it could forecast accurately, and those it missed out.Broadly speaking, the author takes an optimistic view of the future. People buy pessimism, and bad news is news while good news is not, he argues. Hence people tend to have a negative instinct or ‘Progressophiobia’ or blind pessimism. Pulitzer Prizes are often awarded to books on genocide, terrorism, cancer, racism and even one on extinction. Those who hold positive views are mocked at for ‘Panglossian’ view. While blind optimism is as bad as blind pessimism, a robust framework, data-based approach and unbiased scenario analysis provides the realistic view, and this is where this book scores.The book is about people, countries, continents and economies in 2050. There are five forces of change: 1. Demography 2. Pressure on resources and environment 3. International Trade and Finance 4. Technology 5. Role of Government. Every country/continent is analyzed on the impact of these five forces, the headwinds, tailwinds, cross currents, challenges and probable outcomes.China and India were the leading economies of the world till 1800, while Europe dominated in the 19th century and USA took the pole position in the 20th Century. By 2050, China would be the world’s largest economy, followed by USA and India. History comes full circle.Demography to me, appears to be key element, both as an enabler and a critical constraint in shaping economies. The developed countries led by Japan and western Europe are ageing and their dependency ratio (retired to working population) would be the biggest liability. Japan with a high external debt and lack of immigrants will slow down considerably. Germany needs to attract immigrants, but has no experience in integrating outsiders. In addition, since manufacturing as a percentage of global GDP would shrink and countries would prefer local manufacturing, Germany needs immediate and proactive steps to attract and assimilate immigrants and de-risk its economy from export led manufacturing. The Benelux (Belgium, Netherlands and Luxembourg) would be far better off that the southern counties like Italy, Greece, Spain and Portugal. Scandinavia and Switzerland would retain calm prosperity, though their share of global GDP would reduce.USA is in a much better position since it is primarily a land of immigrants, a magnet for attracting the best talent from across the globe, top class universities and a culture of risk taking and entrepreneurship.Africa would continue to be poor, though some countries would make good progress. It is unfair that Africa with lowest emissions and habitat destruction, the continent has to bear the brunt of global warming due to its hot climate and low agrarian incomes. The rest of the world needs to take responsibility and help accelerate development.India has a significant opportunity to make rapid progress, if it can manage the challenges namely infrastructure, income inequalities, better quality of education, health care and the tussle between nationalism and regionalism says the author.In all the above cases, it is important that countries are able to manage the ethnic and religious conflicts. Governance and political leadership play a significant role.We should not underestimate the probability of natural calamities like massive earthquakes (Ring of Fire in the Pacific Ocean) or pandemics, and there is a need for larger global cooperation in case of such unforeseen events.Overall, this is a brilliant book. I look at it from an MNC perspective, the difference between being a Museum of the Past or the Laboratory of the Future. This book provides powerful insights that cannot be ignored in formulating global corporate strategy, to lead and to succeed. Godspeed ahead.Highly recommended.

Loved the book. I think the author has a very balanced and rational view of what might happen in the world in the next 30 years and that is not always easy while writing such books. Although nothing fundamentally new from what has been presented in other recent studies. But still very useful to get a framework on which to understand some of the wider changes happening around us and some long term indicators that have evolved even since this book was released - Explosion of AI, The rise of India, US-China tensions etc.