Wiley The Permanent Portfolio - Long Term Investment Strategy

O livro oferece uma estratégia de investimentos de longo prazo, partindo da premissa de que é impossível prever o mercado, mas possível se blindar de suas oscilações. Não se sabe como será o futuro, mas a proposta do autor parece possuir uma boa fundamentação. Merece ser lido por todo investidor que se preze.

This books switched on the light for me.It is nearly contrarian in its views on investing.Do yourself the favour of committing to reading and understanding what you read in this bookIt's deep wisdom

This is by far the best investment book I've ever read. It's perfect in every way. Easy to follow, thoroughly researched, well edited, beautifully written, practical, and a joy to read. This book will be my constant companion for the rest of my life and I'm going to throw out most of the other investment books I've read. Highly recommended.

I have been in financial markets for a long time and this is the first time that I found an idea that I actually believe in. This book explains Harry Browne's theory in a very compelling way. It's a must read.

I hope that this book is as good as the five stars I have awarded it given that I am now adopting its approach for my SIPP! It proposes a simple but not simplistic approach to long-term investing.The approach is to allocate your assets 25% stocks, 25% long term treasuries, 25% cash and 25% gold on the basis that during prosperity stocks perform well, during prosperity and deflation long-term treasuries perform well, cash performs well during periods of `tight' monetary policy (anyone remember those?) and gold as the ultimate protection against inflation, local currency devaluation and financial chaos. At the end of each year, you re-balance the fund, effectively forcing you to sell high and buy low across the respective asset classes. The premise of the approach is that no one can predict the future (especially in the long-term) then by adopting this approach you should have some asset that will perform and hopefully compensate for those that don't.Although the book presents US-orientated analysis I have replicated for the UK using Barclays' Equity Gilt study 1899 to 2007 and this approach yield an average real return of 4% on an average 20-year rolling period (my timeframe for retirement). An equity only strategy only beat this approach when looking at 1980-2007 (which is a somewhat unfair comparison from depth to peak). Gold is an interesting, sometimes government regulated asset which didn't move from 1899-1919 and 1940-49 but offered significant gains in 1973-74 and 1980 when everything else was getting hammered.In addition to the strategy, the book advises how to diversify your holdings across different institutions (i.e. don't keep all in one SIPP, e.g. Equity Life, one bank e.g. Northern Rock) or even in one country (anyone remember exchange controls?).Very clearly written book but although outside of US is covered would appreciate more depth for my home market, the UK.Update – have changed original review to include performance to-date info (as at 2Feb2221):Assets classes (show real returns i.e. as deflated by % RPI not % CPI)EQUITY: HSBC FTSE 250 Index TrackerBONDS: Treasury 4¼ 2046GOLD: ETFS Metal Securities Ltd Physical Gold (GBP)EQUITY BONDS GOLD CASH (i.e. RPI inflation) OVERALL2014 +5.5% +24.0% +1.0% (-1.6%) +7.3%2015 +10.4% (-1.4%) (-8.7%) (-1.2%) (0.2%)2016 +4.7% +14.8% +13.0% (-2.5%) +7.5%2017 +13.7% +3.4% (-0.8%) (-2.4%) +3.4%2018 (-4.3%) (-1.6%) (-2.2%) (-2.7%) (2.7%)2019 +27.0% +7.6% +12.3% (-2.2%) +11.2%2020 (-6.3%) +7.6% +34.4% (-1.2%) +8.6%2021 +18.2% (-14.7%) (-10.2%) (-7.1%) (-5.7%)2016 - Brexit led to volatility where my holdings in gold broke through the 30% limit and in June, I sold gold (& cash) and increased my holdings in equity and long-term bonds. Rebalancing enhanced these returns.On an average basis for the years 2014-2021, my portfolio had generated a 4.7% Real Return ~ first time it dipped below 5%.Although the above is based on 25% cash holdings, I am actually c 35% as I am expecting a market crash and waiting to increase my equity holding accordingly. As in previous iterations of the review, I do follow Harry Browne’s advice of investing 10% in shares to show that you are not as clever as you think you are, however, my individual share picking continues to outperform the Index and I am compiling a buy listing pending the market crash.2021 was my worst year to-date and dragged the running yield under 5%. This in part reflects the current high inflation rate and also the ‘manipulation’ that appears to be going on in the gold market (I’m starting to sound like a gold bug!). With the Eurodollar future curve inverting and 10-year government bond yields in industrial countries <2% I am wondering whether inflation is really transitory (and that puts my in the Fed’s position who have been consistently wrong since the GFC) or more worrying that the most sophisticated investors are willing to take a year-on-year 5%+ losses as they don’t want to get hit by the coming collapse of the everything bubble.Plus Euro2 Germany liability continues to rise, surpassing US subprime in 2007 (can the Euro continue?), crazy US monetary policy (22% of the circulating US dollar were printed in 2020), Russian troops massing on the Ukrainian border, and, and, and....I wish I had invested more than the £2,000 into Microsoft on 5th May 2011 ~ real return 27% and 10% yield (base on my historic purchase price), I would be retired now!